Saturday, January 25, 2014

2014 NHL Mock Draft (Simmed Playoffs)

To create a more realistic Mock Draft, I used many tools. I extrapolated the standings for 82 games (based on standings from TSN on 01/25/2014), used NHL 14 to simulate the playoffs, and then used a website to create the lottery for the 1st overall pick.

The standing remained relatively the same as they are now, only a few differences. The 14 teams currently not in the playoffs remained out, only the order of the top 16 & bottom 14 changed, but no teams moved into or out of playoff position.

Of the bottom 14 teams, I put them in the lottery system with accurate weights, and the lottery came up with the Winnipeg Jets winning the lottery and the first overall pick. So the the top 14 draft order is:

Winnipeg Jets
Buffalo Sabres
Edmonton Oilers
Calgary Flames
Florida Panthers
New York Islanders (traded to Buffalo, but since a top 10 pick, will defer to 2015)
Washington Capitals
Nashville Predators
Ottawa Senators (traded to Anaheim)
New Jersey Devils (must forfeit pick)
Dallas Stars
Philadelphia Flyers
Carolina Hurricanes
Phoenix Coyotes

Simulating the playoffs is where things got really interesting. The draft order for the teams making the playoffs is a little weird. The Stanley Cup winner picks 30th, the 4 division leaders are ranked 29th-26th by points (most points picks 29th), and the rest of the teams are ranked from 25th-15th by points (most points picks 25th). After extrapolating the final standings, I got these playoff matchups (series score in brackets):

East
1 Boston vs 4 Toronto (0-4)
2 Tampa Bay vs 3 Montreal (4-3)
1 Pittsburgh vs 5 Detroit (4-2)
2 Columbus vs 3 New York R (4-3)

West
1 St Louis vs 4 Vancouver (4-1)
2 Chicago vs 3 Colorado (2-4)
1 Anaheim vs 5 Minnesota (0-4)
2 San Jose vs 3 Los Angeles (1-4)

The rest of the playoffs played out like this:

East
1 Pittsburgh vs 4 Toronto (2-4)
2 Tampa Bay vs 2 Columbus (0-4)

2 Columbus vs 4 Toronto (4-0)

West
1 St Louis vs 5 Minnesota (4-2)
2 Colorado vs 2 Los Angeles (3-4)

1 St Louis vs 2 Los Angeles (3-4)

Stanley Cup Final
2 Los Angeles vs 2 Columbus (2-4)

NHL 14 mixed up the matchups for the second round, so I had to set up specifically those matchups myself. It all works out though.

After the playoffs finished and the SC winner was crowned, the final draft order was set. Without further ado (and there has been a lot of it) here is the draft order, plus the mock draft picks.

1. Winnipeg Jets - Aaron Ekblad
2. Buffalo Sabres - Sam Reinhart
3. Edmonton Oilers - Haydn Fleury
4. Calgary Flames - Sam Bennett
5. Florida Panthers - Michael Dal Colle
6. New York Islanders - Leon Draisaitl
7. Washington Capitals - Brendan Perlinin
8. Nashville Predators - Nick Ritchie
9. Anaheim Ducks (from Ottawa) - Kasperi Kapanen
10. New Jersey Devils - Forfeited Pick
11. Dallas Stars - Jake Virtanen
12. Philadelphia Flyers - Williams Nylander
13. Carolina Hurricanes - David Pastrnak
14. Phoenix Coyotes - Jared McCann
15. New York Rangers - Nikolaj Ehlers
16. Detroit Red Wings - Sonny Milano
17. Toronto Maple Leafs - Ivan Barbashev
18. Minnesota Wild - Julius Honka
19. Montreal Canadiens - Alex Tuch
20. Vancouver Canucks - Nikolay Goldobin
21. Los Angeles Kings - Nikita Scherbak
22. Tampa Bay Lightning - Roland McKeown
23. Colorado Avalanche - Adrian Kempe
24. San Jose Sharks - Anthony DeAngelo
25. Chicago Blackhawks - Dylan Larkin
26. Boston Bruins - Conner Bleackley
27. Pittsburgh Penguins - Anton Karlsson
28. St Louis Blues - Kevin Fiala
29. Anaheim Ducks - Nick Schmaltz
30. Columbus Blue Jackets - Josh Ho-Sang

And with that, it's the end. Finally.